Message from the Chairman

 

It is my great pleasure to present China’s Green Ascent: Reshaping the Global Energy Landscape, developed from the China Energy Transition Review by Ember and the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS).

This paper arrives at a critical moment. The clean energy transition is gaining global momentum, yet questions of pace, scale, and strategy remain deeply contested. China’s choices — and their ripple effects across technology, markets, and policy — will shape not just its own future, but that of the world. This paper offers timely insights into those dynamics, highlighting how China’s clean energy surge is opening new possibilities and redefining the context in which every country must chart its path to prosperity.

ISETS is proud to support this work as part of our mission to bridge research and policy in support of the energy transition across Asia-Pacific and beyond. We hope this paper will provide insights to guide more effective decisions and provide a basis for pragmatic cooperation at a time when collective action is more urgent than ever.

On behalf of ISETS, I thank the authors, contributors, and partners for their efforts, and I invite all readers to reflect on the findings — and on the choices that lie ahead for governments, industries, and societies worldwide.

 

Dr. Sun Xiansheng Chair, Council of the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS) Former Secretary-General, International Energy Forum

 

China’s Green Ascent

 

The world is currently at a critical juncture. One path entrenches reliance on fossil fuels, building on last year’s record-high demand. The other charts a course towards an electrotech revolution — one that promises not only to curb emissions but also to fundamentally realign global industrial growth and economic development with environmental sustainability.

China stands at the forefront of this transformative path. As the world’s largest energy consumer, it is forging ahead with its transition towards a clean energy future — and there is no sign of it slowing down. 

In 2024, electricity generation from wind and solar in China rose by 24.9% compared to the previous year. In the first half of 2025, wind and solar generation was 27.4% higher than in H1 2024 — enough, alongside other trends, to reduce thermal generation by 2.4% compared to the same period in 2024. The volume of installed battery storage also tripled in the three years to 2024, and grid investment reached an all-time high of 608 billion RMB (about US$85 billion) in 2024, up from 486 billion RMB (about US$68 billion) in 2019.

With this momentum, over-achievement of national targets has become routine: China met its 2025 target for 30 GW of ‘new-type’ energy storage two years early; its 2025 target of a 20% market share for new-energy vehicles three years early; and its 2030 target of 1,200 GW of wind and solar capacity six years ahead of schedule.

Alongside this supply-side boom, the share of electricity in final energy demand (excluding non-energy use) across the broader economy continues to grow — reaching 32.4% in 2023 and outpacing the United States and major European countries. Electricity is now the dominant energy source in buildings and, as of 2023, has overtaken coal to become the largest energy source in industry. While oil-derived fuels still dominate the transport sector, China’s rapidly expanding electric vehicle fleet is steadily gaining ground.

These are just the latest manifestations of the profound transformation underway in China’s energy system — spanning both energy supply and end-use sectors such as heating, industry, and transport. Given the sheer scale of China’s energy system, its transition is bound to have global spillover effects. So what does China’s green ascent mean for the rest of the world? What opportunities and strategic choices does it open up for investors, businesses, and governments?

 

Redefining the global energy landscape

 

Transition delayism is neither unavoidable nor desirable 

Transition delayism is the quieter cousin of climate denial — and in many ways, just as dangerous. Few today question the necessity of the energy transition. Yet too often, delayism hides behind phrases like “energy security,” “technical challenges,” or “economic uncertainty,” and has become a powerful, if understated, force undermining climate action in policy circles around the world. 

Concerns over energy security and reliability largely stem from the sheer complexity of transforming a large industrial system like energy. The transition demands far more than simply adding wind and solar capacity; it requires a fundamental reimagining of how energy is produced, transmitted, and consumed. Inevitably, such systemic change introduces transitional vulnerabilities — particularly around supply stability and security. 

In countries with entrenched fossil systems and fragile climate consensus, “orderly transition” often becomes code for delay — a cover for letting short-term politics override long-term strategy. Rising inflation, public debt, and geopolitical tensions only add to the temptation, pulling policy attention away from the long-term priorities of the transition.

China faces this dilemma at a scale few others do. It must reconfigure the world’s largest energy system while keeping the lights on — and do so as planners seek to sustain the world’s largest economy (in PPP terms) on a path of high-quality development, amid headwinds like a real estate slowdown, local debt burdens, and weak consumption. At the same time, China sits at the forefront of global geopolitical competition and strategic rivalry. 

If China can stay the course, it sends a powerful message to the world: transition delayism is not inevitable.

Beyond rhetorical: China offers a pragmatic pathway to manage transition vulnerabilities

As in other countries, the policies driving complex systemic changes often unfold in a logical sequence: first, introducing and supporting new elements within the system; then stimulating their growth; and finally, integrating them into the mainstream.

This approach is often described in China as “build before break” — ensuring clean alternatives are in place and reliable before phasing down legacy systems. The logic is clear: like a child learning to walk, stumbles are part of progress, not reasons to give up. Yet if not well managed, early missteps — such as supply disruptions or price spikes — can provoke public backlash and undermine transition momentum.

To mitigate these risks, China is keeping parts of its fossil legacy — especially coal — not to grow its use, but to repurpose it as a stabilising force in an increasingly renewable-dominated grid. Rather than driving the system, coal increasingly functions like training wheels, providing balance and backup as the clean electricity system gains strength and confidence. 

Observers who miss this underlying philosophy often misinterpret the simultaneous rise of clean energy and the persistence of fossil fuels as mere “additions” — layering renewables on top of existing fossil generation rather than marking a true transition.

But the data tells a different story. Accelerating clean energy additions have pushed China to the brink of a structural decline in coal power — rendering the “additive” argument increasingly obsolete. 

In 2024, clean electricity sources — led by wind and solar — met 84.2% of new power demand. This marks a significant acceleration from previous decades: just 16% during 1991-2000, about 22% during 2001-2010, and approximately 47% during 2011–2020. If current trends continue – and they are highly likely to – the era of “more renewable, more coal” is nearing its end. Some analyses even suggest the turning point may arrive this year.  

Despite ongoing uncertainties around economic restructuring and export growth, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: coal power is fast approaching its peak — likely followed by a short and uneven plateau before structural decline takes hold. 

Expanding the possible: How China lowers the bar for global transition  

By making clean technologies cheap and accessible — and pushing the frontiers of innovation — China is lowering barriers to transition, enabling others to move faster and go further.

Since 2010, the costs of solar PV, wind, and batteries have fallen by 60–90%, often undercutting fossil alternatives. For many in the Global South, this shift means more than climate progress — it’s a pathway to affordable electricity, and with it, better access to health, education, and poverty alleviation. 

If “Made in China” defined the 2010s, “Invented in China” is increasingly defining the 2020s. China now leads the world in clean energy innovation, accounting for over 80% of global patent applications in 2022 — up from just 5% in 2000. 

And the results are tangible: electric vehicles that charge 400 km in 10 minutes; batteries light enough for trucks and planes; offshore wind turbines as tall as the Eiffel Tower; ultra-high voltage lines transmitting desert solar thousands of kilometers to coastal cities; and solar panels reaching 24% efficiency — all pioneered by Chinese firms. 

Together, these advances are not only redefining what’s technically possible — they’re driving down costs and lowering the entry threshold for every country. In doing so, China is expanding the realm of feasible action — turning ambition into affordable, scalable reality.

Charting a future of sustainable growth

China has shown that the energy transition is more than decarbonisation — it is a strategic pivot to reimagine development. With the fossil-fuelled growth model reaching its environmental and economic limits, China increasingly sees the transition as an opportunity to redefine what progress looks like in the 21st century. 

Rapid and still-accelerating deployment of clean technologies — from solar panels and wind turbines to batteries and EVs — is now driving a new engine of growth. In 2024, the “new” economy — including high-tech, clean electrotech, and other innovation-driven sectors — contributed more than 18% of China’s GDP, up from 17% in 2020. Much of this growth has come from the “new three” sectors: solar panels, batteries, and EVs. Together, they grew three times faster than the overall economy in 2024, contributing approximately 13.6 trillion RMB ($1.9 trillion) to the country’s economic output — roughly the size of Australia’s annual GDP. 

This transformation carries powerful global implications. For decades, climate action in many parts of the world — particularly the Global South — was seen as a trade-off between environmental responsibility and economic growth, summed up in the phrase: “the right to emit is the right to develop.” Underlying this lies an ethical paradox: How can developing nations reconcile their legitimate aspirations for prosperity with the reality of finite planetary boundaries? 

China offers a compelling answer. Through multiple pathways — including enhancing domestic energy security, delivering affordable power, enabling industrial upgrading, and expanding supply chains — decarbonisation can be aligned with industrial growth and economic development. In short, it represents a better development model: one that reduces the environmental burdens of the fossil fuel era while unlocking new opportunities for long-term prosperity.

As seen in China, the pursuit of clean energy can trigger a “growing-by-greening” dynamic  — a self-reinforcing cycle where early success breeds confidence, accelerates investment, and propels the transition forward. It is like steering a vast ship — it takes time, but once the course is set, the momentum becomes self-sustaining and difficult to reverse. 

 

Strategic choices

 

China’s inexorable march into the age of clean electricity is reshaping the global energy landscape — redefining the context in which every other country must now chart its own path to future prosperity. This transformation is not merely technological or economic; it is strategic. It opens up new possibilities — but also demands new decisions.

Every country now faces a fresh set of choices across three critical domains: 

• Energy: For fossil-importing economies, the emergence of low-cost clean energy offers a path to greater energy access and reduced import dependence — opportunities that simply did not exist a decade ago. Realising these gains, however, hinges on a series of strategic choices: upgrading grid infrastructure to accommodate the variability of wind and solar; reforming energy markets and regulatory frameworks to attract investment; and strengthening energy governance to manage increasingly decentralised systems — including distributed energy resources and more dynamic system operations. Meanwhile, fossil-exporting economies must decide whether to reinforce their existing fossil sectors or begin diversifying — drawing on their deep technical expertise and institutional experience to take leadership in emerging clean energy industries. 
• Development: Beyond the energy sector, the transition presents substantial opportunities to align economic growth with environmental sustainability. But capitalising on these opportunities requires navigating difficult trade-offs across financial, industrial, and economic policy domains — where competing priorities such as poverty alleviation, rapid industrialisation, improved living standards, and social welfare improvement must be carefully balanced against transition goals. The intricacy of these decisions tests countries’ governing capacity and political resolve. 
• Security: Countries face strategic choices in their international economic relations — choices that carry profound security implications. A central question is how to engage with China. To what extent is it desirable — or viable — to compete with Chinese manufacturers? What kinds of industrial policies or financial incentives would be needed to do so — and at what cost? Can such competition spur innovation and cost reductions, or would it risk triggering fragmentation and protectionism, ultimately slowing global progress? Alternatively, could cooperation offer a more pragmatic and mutually beneficial path — one that leverages China’s manufacturing scale, technological know-how, and openness to deeper collaboration?

Beneath these questions, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: while the fossil-fuelled growth model may still yield short-term gains, it is rapidly becoming unsustainable — both economically and environmentally. Volatile fossil fuel prices continue to expose countries to inflationary shocks and heighten fiscal vulnerability, especially through rising debt burdens. At the same time, intensifying climate risks — from extreme heat and wildfires to floods and droughts — are driving up adaptation and recovery costs, further straining public finances and squeezing already overstretched resources.

Against this backdrop, the ultimate choice facing decision-makers is whether to remain on this path until the costs become unmanageable — or to proactively pivot, leveraging global momentum and emerging opportunities to forge a more sustainable and prosperous future powered by clean energy. China appears to have already made its choice, accelerating along the second path. For others still weighing their options, the time for a decision is fast approaching.